"Multiple Working Hypotheses: The method of multiple working hypotheses begins with many tentative answers and the expectation that no single answer may be the whole story. Indeed, in Geology a story is what we seek, not just a conclusion."
[I was introduced to the concept of "Multiple Working Hypotheses" in the Spring 1977 Geomorphology course in my first semester of grad school, by one of my most influential professors. Since then, I have only heard one Geologist cite this concept in the field, though others may have been practicing it.]
Here is a link to a reproduction of the original 1897 Journal of Geology publication, by T.C. Chamberlin.
Some paraphrased passages from Andrew Alden at ThoughtCo.com:
For those Geologists that spend our careers scuttling around outside, we are often met with scattered outcrops, sometimes contorted by folding and faulting, soil and vegetative covers, bodies of water, large construction sites, reclusive or curmudgeonly ranch and farm owners, quarry owners worried about liability and personal injury lawsuits, ...
Even if we have access to a drilling rig for core samples, there are time restraints and the rig may be scheduled for use elsewhere. Another issue is if we have a square parcel with coreholes at each corner, if we get our wish for a fifth corehole "in the center", there is the possibility of getting a "surprise" in that core, throwing doubt into our working assumptions, perhaps because of an unknown facies change and generating new questions in the late stage of the project.
More than once I have gained tentative permission for a preliminary visit to a site. Once the "home office", the absentee land-owner, or corporate lawyers are notified, the "green light" changes to "yellow", or worse, "red". At one site, in 1999, the Coastal Plain property was a quail-hunting preserve, and the land custodian said "fine" for us to do a preliminary visit to check out the lithologies and Middle Eocene fossils present. [It wasn't quail season, anyway.]
By the time we came back a week later, with a plan, the custodian informed us that the "owners in Atlanta" said "No". While the custodian was apologetic, he inferred that the landowners thought we were "activists" in search of endangered plants, as an excuse for shutting down the hunting preserve. We tried - through him - to convince them that we were Geologists looking for fossils and we knew nothing about plants. It didn't work.
The point here is to offer just a few of the plethora of reasons that we rarely get the time and access to collect unlimited samples or to measure things, as we wish. These cited factors illustrate ways in which "gaps in data" come to exist, i.e., uncertainty is introduced.
From the Alden citation:
"A geologist in 1890, Thomas Chrowder Chamberlin, first described the special kind of intellectual work needed, calling it the method of multiple working hypotheses. He considered it the most advanced of three "scientific methods":
Ruling Theory: The "method of the ruling theory" begins with a ready answer to which the thinker grows attached, looking only for facts that confirm the answer. [Which introduces "Confirmation Bias", a normal human practice.]
Working Hypothesis: The "method of the working hypothesis" begins with a tentative answer, the hypothesis, and seeks out facts to try against it. This is the textbook version of science ... Plate tectonics is a healthy working hypothesis, being extended today in full awareness of its uncertainties.
Multiple Working Hypotheses: The method of multiple working hypotheses begins with many tentative answers and the expectation that no single answer may be the whole story. Indeed, in geology, a story is what we seek, not just a conclusion ...
Discovering the true story means weighing and combining different working hypotheses. Charles Darwin, 40 years earlier, had done just this in devising his theory of species evolution.
The scientific method of geologists is to collect information, stare at it, try a lot of different assumptions, read and discuss other people's papers and grope their way toward greater certainty, or at least figure the answers with the best odds. This is more like the real problems of real-life where much is unknown and variable—planning an investment portfolio, devising regulations, teaching students.
The method of multiple working hypotheses deserves to be more widely known. In his 1890 paper Chamberlin said, "I am confident, therefore, that general application of this method to the affairs of social and civic life would go far to remove those misunderstandings, misjudgments, and misrepresentations which constitute so pervasive an evil in our social and our political atmospheres, the source of immeasurable suffering to the best and most sensitive souls."
Chamberlin's method is still a staple of geological research, at least in the mindset that we should always look for better answers and avoid falling in love with one beautiful idea ..."
Also from respected Meteorologist Judith Curry are additional considerations. A good portion of her blog post is based upon excerpts from Chamberlin's writings, as could be used in other disciplines besides Geology.
Another articulation herein is presented by UGA Geology Professor, Bruce Railsback (I had trouble getting it to open).
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